"You Can Always Refi" - What 30 Years of Data Actually Says

We ran 30 years of Pikes Peak MLS rate and price data to test the most popular mantra in real estate. The answer is more complicated - and more honest - than the slogan suggests.

The Claim

"Marry the house, date the rate" has become a go-to mantra for agents selling in a high-rate environment. The logic: buy now, refinance when rates drop, and you'll have locked in today's price. It sounds clean. It sounds smart. But does the data actually support it?

I ran 30 years of local rate and price data through the numbers. Here's what I found.

The Refi Track Record

Rate History at a Glance

How Often Do High-Rate Buyers Actually Get a Refi Window?

I looked at every month where a buyer locked in at 6.5% or higher, then checked whether rates dropped at least 1.5 points within 36 months - enough to justify closing costs and make a refinance genuinely worthwhile.

Result: 41% success rate.

Of 106 months where someone bought at 6.5%+, only 43 saw a meaningful refi window within 3 years. 59% of high-rate buyers got no meaningful refinance opportunity.

When It Worked

• Late 1990s – 2003: Rates fell from 8%+ to 5.2% over ~30 months. Buyers at 8% in 2000 could refi to 5.2% by 2003. Genuine home run.
• 2006 – 2007: Brief rate spike to 6.5–6.7%, then rates crashed during the financial crisis. Refi'd to the 4s.

When It Hasn't Worked

October 2022 through today - zero meaningful refi windows. Every buyer from Oct 2022 onward at 6.5–7.6% has seen rates stay elevated. The best available rate since then: 6.19% (Dec 2025). That's a 0.5–1.4 point drop at best - not enough to justify refi closing costs for most borrowers.

We are now 26 months into a high-rate cycle with no meaningful relief. The last time that happened, it lasted 78 months (Jan 1996 – Jun 2002).

The "Buy Now" Math - When It Works

Assuming 3% annual appreciation (the standard bull case):

The cost of paying 6.19% for 24 months before refi'ing is about $4,966 total. The cost of waiting - if prices keep climbing - is $28,617 in lost equity and a permanently higher payment.

If appreciation holds, buying now wins. That part of the math is clean.

The Part Nobody Talks About

Here's where I think we need to be more careful. The "buy now" argument assumes prices keep climbing. But what does the data say about that assumption right now?

Current Affordability Is Historically Strained

Payment-to-income is at 50.4% against El Paso County's median household income of $79,026. That's not stretched - that's broken. The median household literally cannot afford the median home at current rates. That's not a prediction. It's a measurement. And it's a leading indicator of demand destruction.

Colorado Springs Prices Have Already Softened

This isn't hypothetical. It's happening:

• Aug 2025: -3.2% year-over-year
• Oct 2024: -2.2% year-over-year
• Feb – May 2023: -2.3% to -6.3% year-over-year
• Several 24-month windows ending in 2024–2025 show price declines of 1–2%

What If Prices Don't Cooperate?

The standard "buy now" pitch assumes 3% annual appreciation. What if prices go flat - or fall?

The break-even is around a 5% price decline. If prices drop more than 5% over the next two years, the person who waited comes out ahead - even accounting for the rent they paid and the equity they didn't build.

How Often Have Colorado Springs Prices Actually Declined Over 24 Months?

One in four 24-month windows in Colorado Springs history showed flat or declining prices. That's not a tail risk - it's a realistic scenario. And the most recent 24-month windows (2022–2024) are among them.

The Honest Assessment

What "You Can Always Refi" Gets Right

• The rate is temporary. Over 30 years, you will almost certainly see a refi window at some point.
• If you plan to hold 10+ years, short-term rate premiums wash out.
• Building equity and stability has real value that pure payment math doesn't capture.

What It Gets Wrong

• It implies refi is imminent. The data says 59% of high-rate buyers waited more than 3 years - and we're currently 26 months in with no end in sight.
• It assumes prices only go up. They don't. 25% of 24-month windows in Colorado Springs showed flat or declining prices.
• It ignores affordability as a leading indicator. At 50% payment-to-income, demand destruction isn't a theory - it's math.

Where We Are Right Now

We're in a market where:

• Rates are elevated with no clear path to sub-6%
• Affordability is at historic stress levels (50%+ payment-to-income)
• Prices have already shown year-over-year declines in multiple recent months
• The 24-month price trend is flat to slightly negative

This doesn't mean "don't buy." It means the decision is personal, not formulaic.

A buyer who has a secure income well above median, plans to hold 7+ years, is buying below their max approval, and would be paying comparable rent anyway - is probably fine buying now, even without a near-term refi. The rate premium is real but manageable, and they're building equity.

A buyer who is stretching to qualify, might need to sell within 3–5 years, or is banking on a quick refi to make the payment work - is taking a real risk that the data doesn't support.

The Bottom Line

"You'll probably get to refi eventually - but plan your budget as if you won't. If the payment works at today's rate, buy. If it only works with a refi, wait."

Data: Pikes Peak MLS, Jan 1996 – Dec 2025. 362 months of rate and price data. Analysis covers the Colorado Springs metropolitan area. Individual situations vary - this is market-level analysis, not financial advice.